How accurate are insider buys? Multi-horizon analysis vs S&P 500 benchmark.
🔄 Last update: 09/19/2026 at 14:10 UTC| Horizon | Evaluated | Hit Rate (90d) | Avg. Return | S&P 500 | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30d | 134 | 80% | +6.9% | +3.5% | +3.4% |
| 60d | 116 | 90% | +14.4% | +5.8% | +8.7% |
| 90d | 111 | 83% | +15.6% | +7.0% | +8.6% |
| 180d | 55 | 86% | +12.8% | +6.7% | +6.1% |
| Role | Buys | Evaluated | Hit Rate (90d) | Alpha (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFO | 1 | 1 | 100% | +91.2% |
| Officer | 1 | 1 | 100% | +25.1% |
| CEO | 36 | 32 | 94% | +13.3% |
| 10% Owner | 70 | 56 | 91% | +7.7% |
| CTO | 26 | 21 | 43% | -1.1% |
| Sector | Buys | Evaluated | Hit Rate (90d) | Alpha (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | 43 | 42 | 86% | +12.4% |
| Financials | 75 | 60 | 90% | +7.6% |
| Technology | 12 | 6 | 17% | -0.9% |
| Industrials | 2 | 2 | 50% | -6.5% |
| Communication Services | 1 | 1 | 0% | -8.4% |
| Ticker | Buys | Evaluated | Hit Rate (90d) | Avg. Return | Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | 2 | 1 | 100% | +94.3% | +91.2% |
| PYPL | 1 | 1 | 100% | +26.4% | +25.1% |
| RIVN | 6 | 6 | 83% | +20.5% | +17.9% |
| TSLA | 26 | 26 | 100% | +22.8% | +17.8% |
| SBUX | 1 | 1 | 100% | +17.6% | +16.1% |
| BAC | 25 | 12 | 100% | +20.8% | +14.1% |
| GS | 45 | 43 | 88% | +15.8% | +6.0% |
| SOFI | 4 | 4 | 75% | +6.3% | +0.3% |
| AVGO | 2 | 2 | 0% | -1.2% | -4.0% |
| BA | 2 | 2 | 50% | +1.4% | -6.5% |
We evaluate every open-market insider purchase (SEC Form 4, code "P") by measuring stock price performance at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days after the buy. Each return is compared to the S&P 500 index over the same period to calculate alpha (outperformance). Only buys with sufficient time elapsed are included in the evaluation.
It measures how often a stock price goes up after an insider (executive, director, or major shareholder) makes an open-market purchase. A hit rate above 50% means insiders are right more often than not.
Alpha is the difference between the stock's return and the S&P 500 return over the same period. Positive alpha means insider buys outperformed the general market.
For each insider buy, we compare the stock price on the buy date to the price at +30, +60, +90, and +180 days. We then calculate the average return and compare it to the S&P 500 benchmark.
Insiders have deep knowledge of their company's operations, pipeline, and prospects. When they voluntarily invest their own money, it often signals genuine confidence in the company's future — information advantage that academic research has consistently documented.